IT’S the question everyone asks at this time of year – ‘will we be getting a white Christmas?’ And, in truth, none of us know whether we will or not until the big day. But our weather expert Paul Tovey has taken a look back at what has happened in years gone by and has even devised his own formula which would see Bromsgrove and Rubery have its perfect white Christmas…..
Whether it be snowflakes falling at a given location at midday on Christmas Day, or a white carpet greeting us as we open the curtains or blinds on the morning of the big day, white Christmases are a rare treat for most parts of the UK.
However, they do happen more often than is generally thought – you just need to be in the right location, which usually varies quite a bit from year to year when they do occur.
In recent years, we can look at both 2009 and 2010, when snow blanketed much of the UK at Christmas, though for most of us none actually fell from the skies on both those Christmas Days.
In 2004, cold north-westerly winds brought snow to much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, many parts of Wales, and later a dusting in the Midlands on Christmas Day. The Christmas Days of 2001, 2000, 1996, 1995 and 1993 all produced some flakes in the Midlands, but no more than that.
Going back a long time ago, a repeat of the Christmas Day blizzards of 1927 would sound like an ideal formula for a white Christmas, but villages were cut off for days that year, and such a big snowfall would be just as unwelcome today!
A perfect scenario for many of us, would be for a steady fall of snow to commence on Christmas Eve, continue during the night, and taper off during Christmas Day, with perhaps a few centimetres of lying snow resulting. Sunshine to follow would also be ideal, but with a continuation of freezing temperatures.
For the Midlands, this could need a polar airstream getting well established by Christmas Eve, with sharp overnight frosts, then a short-wave trough sinking down from south-east Greenland or Iceland, into the northern Irish Sea, Wales then southern England. The resulting mainly light winds, and continuous snowfall for at least several hours, would then produce the most perfect scenario for a white Christmas!
In 2001, such an event happened, but five days late on December 30.
And in 2010, it happened again, five days early on December 20, and the trough deepened and stalled resulting in a huge amount of snow. Let us hope similar scenarios result on December 24 and 25 this year.
Early indications suggest Christmas 2016 could be dominated by high pressure, being essentially dry and potentially cold, with a north-easterly breeze.
But you never know, it could bring a few flakes!
So keep your fingers (and everything else crossed) and maybe, just maybe, we could have a white Christmas!
