A major government commissioned review has warned that the number of young people not in education, employment or training could rise sharply over the next five years unless action is taken.
The report, led by former health secretary Alan Milburn, predicts the number of 16 to 24 year olds classed as Neet, meaning not in education, employment or training, could increase from 957,000 today to 1.25 million by 2031.
If the forecast proves accurate, around one in six young people would fall into the category, compared with one in eight at present.
Official figures show there were 957,000 young people classed as Neet between October and December 2025, while youth unemployment has risen to 16.2 per cent, its highest level in more than a decade.
Mr Milburn is due to publish the findings of his review on Thursday and is expected to warn Britain risks creating a “lost generation” without urgent intervention.
In extracts released ahead of publication, he argues the problem reflects wider failures across the education, health and welfare systems, which he says are no longer properly preparing young people for work and adult life.
He says the crisis is “not a failure of young people” but “a failure of a system stuck in the past”, warning that too many young people are being pushed towards long term benefit dependency instead of employment or training opportunities.
The report also highlights growing concerns about the availability of entry level jobs. Mr Milburn is expected to say “the first rung of the career ladder has thinned”, making it increasingly difficult for younger workers to gain the experience employers often expect.
Business groups have also raised concerns about rising employment costs and weakening recruitment. Employers say higher staffing costs, including increases to employer National Insurance contributions and minimum wage rates, are adding pressure at a time when many firms are already facing difficult trading conditions.
Sectors such as hospitality and retail, which traditionally provide many first jobs for younger workers, have seen vacancies fall in recent years.
The review also points to the growing cost of economic inactivity among younger people. According to the findings, around £25 is spent on benefits for young people for every £1 invested in employment support programmes.
Pat McFadden, the Work and Pensions Secretary who commissioned the review, said the findings highlighted the scale of the challenge facing the Government.
He said ministers were already taking steps to expand apprenticeships and support young people into work, but acknowledged that “more needs to be done”.
A final report later this year is expected to set out recommendations aimed at reducing youth worklessness and improving pathways into jobs and training.
